Mid September Winter 2009-2010 Forecast Update
I have noticed and done more research and it seems like it would be enough to update my forecast.
In the last couple of weeks, I have seen that the El Nino is struggling to strenghen and is starting to become more basin wide instead of East Based, here are the current SST values, Nino 1+2=0.5, Nino 3=0.8, Nino 3+4=0.9, Nino 4=0.8, in the last few weeks, Nino regions 1+2 and 3 have cooled off while regions 3+4 and 4 have remained consistent or slightly warmed up. This pattern right now is being caused because of the multidecedal -PDO, which tends to keep the SST's cooler, especially in the eastern regions.
In the last couple of weeks, I have seen that the El Nino is struggling to strenghen and is starting to become more basin wide instead of East Based, here are the current SST values, Nino 1+2=0.5, Nino 3=0.8, Nino 3+4=0.9, Nino 4=0.8, in the last few weeks, Nino regions 1+2 and 3 have cooled off while regions 3+4 and 4 have remained consistent or slightly warmed up. This pattern right now is being caused because of the multidecedal -PDO, which tends to keep the SST's cooler, especially in the eastern regions.
Overall the changes I will make is to say the max SST values should be in the +1.0C to +1.5C range with overall Weak-Moderate El Nino conditions, IF we can have a strong -PDO and a consistent +SOI, this could weaken down to a Neutral event at any time. For the temperatures and precipitation, I moved the axis of cold/wet/snowy conditions and warm/dry conditions further north and west of the oringinal forecast. I also now would say that the most common type of precip this winter in the 1-95 should actually be rain or a mix of the 2, the snowfall will mainly come from strong and cold storms, wouldn't be suprised if we had a few inland storms as the NAO/AO/PNA will be fluctuating a lot this winter.
Comments would be appreciated.
Does this mean a snowy winter for places like Westminster Maryland?
ReplyDeleteYes, you should have a snowier than normal winter, but a lot of the storms will be a mix for you with the snow coming from big storms.
ReplyDeleteHow does this affect the Apps in western NC? Is this year gonna be above average snowfall or below average like the last two. Thanks
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