Final Winter 2009-2010 Discussion/Forecast

Winter 2009-2010 Forecast ''An Active Winter Ahead''!

Over the last 6 months, I have been watching the telleconnectors and factors of ENSO, QBO, SOI, PDO, etc and have used them and favored climatology and thinking with effort to make this forecast, Enjoy!
　
Part 1:Telleconnectors and Factors

ENSO[El Nino Southern Oscillation]

Since the previous Winter of 2008-2009, an El Nino has been forming, it has since gotten to a Weak category with some spots hitting Moderate like values at time, but has overall stayed weak. Here are the past and current weekly SST departures.
1:Weekly SST Map
The current values are as follows, Nino 1+2=+0.3C, Nino 3=+0.8C, Nino 3+4=+0.9C, Nino 4=+0.8C, trimonthly/average=+0.7C, as you can see, there has been no major warming in the last couple of months and SST values have either holded suit or have cooled slightly. Here is my prediction for the trimonthly SST values.

2:Trimonthly SST Prediction Map

As you can see, I am predicting that Weak El Nino conditions will be dominant through now until Wintertime, we may approach Moderate El Nino values in NDJ, but will most likely stay Weak, by spring, we should have neutral conditions. Unless we see another major warm pool soon, Moderate El Nino should not be reached. I would say right now that we are much more likely to have a West-Based El Nino then an East-Based because East-Based would favor warmer SST's.

PDO [Pacific Decadal Oscillation]
This year we are in a multidecadal -PDO year which gives bad chances for a Moderate to Strong El Nino and gives a better chance for a Neutral to La Nina like year. The PDO lately seems to be rising toward positive as waters in the eastern pacific coastline seem to be warming to a more +PDO like environment, this should help keep the El Nino going. A +PDO also gives us west coast ridging with warm waters and cool GOM and atlantic waters with a favorable south and east [+PNA]. I would say that positive may be accomplished, but since we are in a multidecadal year, this will most likely be around neutral. For clarification, this is what a PDO does in its phases.

3:PDO phases and SST correlation
Here is the current SST anamolies
4:Current SST anamolies

SOI [Southern Oscillation Index]
The SOI lately has been flip flopping between positive and negative, it is currently positive, when the SOI is positive, it helps keeps the equalatteral Pacific cooler than in its -SOI mode, SOI should continue switching between negative and positive in the next several months. Irrigardless, it has been supporting a Weaker El Nino as well.

Climatology

Normally, an El Nino, the warm phase of SST's puts warmer waters in the pacific ocean, especially areas around the equator. An El Nino favors warmth on the Western US coast, western Canada, and alaska with this able to spread into the Northern US while cooler and wetter conditions further to the south and east in the GOM area persist, here is a demonstration of a regular El Nino [Moderate to Strong]

5:Regular El Nino Winter Conditions

A Mod-Strong El Nino would block artic air from entering the US and would keep most of the North US warm with a rather strong High pressure near the Pacific coast while the Pacific Jet Stream is forced southward giving a further south track, the GOM area becomes an area of moisture filled storms in the Winter and give off there own cold in this case.
Now in a Weak El Nino, the area of high pressure in the Northwest is weakened and can be pushed northward giving more of a widespread stormtrack and not as warm conditions while the GOM is a breeding ground for moisture and very well affects the Gulf Coast states with this and forms lows riding up the coast affecting the East Coast in a Weak El Nino, with the more north storm track, more Miller B storms forming off the Mid Atlantic coast are found. El Nino's tend to favor a overall warmer Nov/Dec and a cooler Jan/Feb for the country.

Part 2:The Forecast

November 2009

From what I have been looking at, this November looks to favor normal El Nino means as it will still be trying to strenghen. I see the high pressure area strong and slightly further east this month giving the West, North, and Mid Country areas Above average Temperatures, the storm track will be further south this month affecting mainly the extreme southeast and Florida with storms mainly going OTS after it, pattern favors a Neutral NAO, Neutral AO, Positive PNA, and Negative EPO.

6:November 2009 Temperature Anamolies
7:November 2009 Precipitation Percent of Normal
8:November 2009 500mb Pattern

December 2009

I do know that El Nino's favor warm Temperatures in this month but for this Weak borderline Moderate El Nino, I am expecting that the high pressure area will be further north allowing for more cold and wet potential into the Southern US, the GOM will be now starting to get more moisture and there will be likely more and stronger storms forming in the GOM affecting the gulf coast with Above average precip and these storms will either go OTS or ride up the coast affecting the Mid Atlantic/Northeast, especially the eastern regions, these storms will once again create cooler conditions, pattern favors a Neutral NAO, Negative AO, Positive PNA, Negative EPO.

9:December 2009 Temperature Anamolies
10:December 2009 Precipitation Percent of Normal
11:December 2009 500mb Pattern

January 2010

In El Nino's, January can tend to be a turning point in the pattern, by January, we should start to see the El Nino weaken a little bit. I am going for a weaker high pressure area and once again further north, this month I believe the convection of the Gulf Of Mexico will really fire up and we very well could get a Wet/Snowy month for the Gulf Coast and East Coast, some areas may approach 150% of average precipitation. There will be lots of cold in these storms so the Mid Atlantic/Northeast should be on the lookout for some major snow with these storms, there is a high potential for a Noreaster with Heavy Snow this month as well as strong winds and Blizzard like charecteristics, I am also seeing a good chance of Miller B storms this month with the area of Low Pressure and development, like January 2005. Pattern favors a Negative NAO, Negative AO, a Positive PNA, and a Negative EPO, I am also expecting that the atmosphere may look Neutralish for the ENSO at times.

12:January 2010 Temperature Anamolies
13:January 2010 Precipitation Percent of Normal
14:January 2010 500mb Pattern

February 2010

February El Nino's favor to be one of the coolest months of the Winter, I am expecting that the El Nino will continue to weaken during this time. I am expecting that the western high will be mainly a nonfactor at this moment and the Northwest will start to get more precipitation, the South and East will continue to deal with many storms and ample moisture with coastal storms and more possible Miller B's, by this time we may have a Neutral to even Weak La Nina like pattern and have some overunning storms forming inland as we have a higher possibility of a -PNA this month, so it is likely that the Ohio Valley, and the Southern Great Lakes end up with colder and wetter/snowier conditions this month. Pattern favors a Negative NAO, Negative AO, Positive-Neutral PNA, and a Negative EPO. Ice potential is higher this month in storms.

15:February 2010 Temperature Anamolies
16:February 2010 Precipitation Percent of Normal
17:February 2010 500mb Pattern

March 2010

March's tend to be variable in weather since they normally come off an ENSO, the El Nino by this time will be gone and we will be in a Neutral State. I am forecasting that the axis of moisture will spread northward as the GOM starts to wind down due to the steering, I expect this month to be more of a inland track month which will favor the West, the Mid Country, and the Ohio Valley areas with above average precipitation, overunning events will be found this month. Pattern favors a Neutral NAO, Neutral AO, Neutral-Negative PNA, and a Negative EPO.

18:March 2010 Temperature Anamolies
19:March 2010 Precipitation Percent Of Normal
20:March 2010 500mb Pattern
　
Overall Temperatures
Temperatures this winter will be above average in the west and below average in the east with some months giving other patterns, but this will be the average.

21:Winter 2009-2010 Temperature Anamolies

Overall Rainfall
Rainfall will be below average in the west and above average in the east with some months giving other patterns, but this will be average.

22:Winter 2009-2010 Rainfall Percent Of Normal

Overall Snowfall
Snowfall will be below average in the west and above average in the east, especially in January and February where the storms will be cold enough to give heavy snowfall.

23:Winter 2009-2010 Snowfall Percent Of Normal

Other Information

Most of the storms near the major cities could be a rain or a rain/snow mix due to climatology and patterns, the above average snow will come from major storms in January and February.
All months will have cold fronts and warm fronts coming through the area time after time giving some precipitation.
The area of ice this winter will be from the Mid Region, through the Ohio Valley, and then into the Mid Atlantic when we get overunning events during a -PNA pattern, CAD may be a factor this winter as well.

City By City Forecast's
[Closest to Whole Number]

Washington DC:
Nov:+1
Dec:0
Jan:-3
Feb:-2
Mar:-1
Average:-1
Snowfall Percent:125%
Total Snowfall:20-25

New York City NY:
Nov:+1
Dec:0
Jan:-3
Feb:-1
Mar:-1
Average:-0.8
Snowfall Percent:100-125%
Total Snowfall:30-35

Chicago IL:
Nov:+2
Dec:+1
Jan:0
Feb:-1
Mar:-1
Average:+0.2
Snowfall Percent:100%

Dallas TX:
Nov:+1
Dec:0
Jan:-1
Feb:-3
Mar:-1
Average:-0.8
Snowfall Percent:100-125%

Denver CO:
Nov:+2
Dec:+1
Jan:0
Feb:-1
Mar:-2
Average:0
Snowfall Percent:75-100%

Seattle WA:
Nov:+4
Dec:+3
Jan:+1
Feb:+1
Mar:-1
Average:~1.67
Snowfall Percent:50-75%

That is my forecast, I will make more specific month by month forecast's once we get close to the month.

The numbers which come in order from 1 to 23 represent the images which are avaliable on the accuweather forums.

Comments would be appreciated!