In the last few days, a tropical wave has developed in the atlantic ocean and has since became an invest, so far this is trying to fight shear hence the reason that this is still only an invest, but latest recon observations have reported 50-60mph winds so this may and likely will become either a depresson or Erika within 12-24 hours. Current 2pm location is 16.8N, 57.2W and drifting to the WNW at about 9mph.
Now lets look at the latest model runs.
The 12z GFS is keeping this weak and south, low goes through the northern carribean islands.
The 12z NAM also keeps this weak and sends it toward the southeast coastline.
The 12z GFDL has this getting to a Cat 2 hurricane and keeping it east.
The 12z HRWF has this getting to a Cat 3 hurricane and following 12z GFDL
The 12z GGEM has this storm strong and rides near the coast.
The 12z NOGAPS has this riding near the coast.
The 12z ECM has this storm slow and takes this storm near the coast but most likely OTS.
So generally most model guidance has some kind of track through the Western Atlantic or landfall on the East Coast. The GFDL/HRWF, hurricane models can have a bias of strenghening the storm to much, this also applies to the GGEM model. The GFS/NAM/GGEM/NOGAPS have a westward/coastal solution while the GFDL/HRWF/ECM have a eastern solution, while the consensus of global models are west, the ECM, which is a great model,is not west, so I am taking that to mind as well.
For my prediction, I am mainly agreeing with the NAM/NOGAPS/GGEM for track, and the GFS and ECM for strengh. I am predicting that this will move into the western atlantic as a Tropical Storm or Hurricane and may even stay off the coast overall, while I believe this is a possible solution IMO, this could easily go west of there with a lanfall or even a GOM track, I.E GFS. Remember we got plenty of time left so this could easily change.
Comments would be appreciated.
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