October 2009 Forecast/Discussion

October 2009 Forecast/Discussion

Temperature

Precipitation

Pattern

This month, I am expecting more of a +NAO pattern to set up which will allow for ridging on the east coast and some of the inland areas of the MidAtl/NE to get some good rainfall and the west should get into a temporary cooler/wetter pattern due to the effects of the PDO. I am also expecting a -EPO to set up and give the Great Lakes area some cool times.

Overall, this is what I am expecting by the parts of the month.

Oct 1-7, we are still in a -NAO pattern and are getting cool conditions on the east coast, though the west will be cool as at this time there will be a TZT pattern, NAO is negative, EPO is around neutral, AO is around neutral, and PNA is neutral.

Oct 8-14, a more zonal pattern develops at this time, NAO is around neutral, AO is positive, EPO is around neutral, and PNA is negative.

Oct 15-27, a +NAO is forming here and will give warmer temperatures to the East coast, by this time, the EPO shall be negative and the Great Lakes should have a cooler and potentially wetter pattern along with the west coast, the progressive pattern continues, NAO is positive, AO is positive, EPO is negative, PNA is neutral.

Oct 28-31, the pattern breaks and we go back to a more zonal flow, but this time we are still in a +NAO and the main storm track is shifted into the North country while the south is warm/dry, NAO is positive, AO is positive, EPO is negative, PNA is negative.

So there are my monthly thoughts, I will give more specific details in the October pattern thread.

Comments would be appreciated.