2nd Winter 2009-2010 Discussion/Forecast

Here is my second Winter 2009-2010 discussion/forecast.

Just to clarify, we are one day from Labor Day and we are currently 3 months from meteorogical winter.

First off, the factors and the telleconnectors this winter.

ENSO:The SST values at the lastest update are as follows, Nino 1+2=0.8C, Nino 3=1.0C, Nino 3+4=0.9C, Nino 4=0.9C, as you can see, we are in a Weak El Nino state, forecasts are predicting a Moderate El Nino to form with a little more warming in the Pacific. Forecasts were originally calling for a Strong El Nino potentially rivaling the years of 1982-1983 and 1997-1998, but have overestimated it, I am calling for a Moderate El Nino to form with a max SST value in the range of +1.2C to +1.5C, but with a potential of this staying a Weak El Nino with the right factors.

PDO:The PDO is negative right now and is in a multidecadal -PDO phase and is expected to stay that way through wintertime, historically this is known to keep a Strong El Nino away and would help us in having a Weak-Moderate El Nino.

SOI:The SOI has been flipping between positive and negative in the last couple of months, historically if the SOI is positive for the majority of the time, it will help keep the El Nino weak, the SOI should continue flipping through the next couple months, hence it shouldn't be that much of a concern.

Tropical Influence:I know that this may not be considered to mean anything, but this has been considered to churn up the waters and cool them down in the northern GOM and in the Western Atlantic and can influence the weather in the United States, if we get more storms, this could help us in getting more storms.

Now how will this play out in the Winter with the El Nino effecting the Jet Stream, Temperature, and Precipitation patterns.
Overall, this winter will have 2 different areas of effectence.

First is the Northwest, Great Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes:This area should have mainly Above average Temperatures, and Below average Rainfall/Snowfall, this area will not have that much storms as the jet stream will keep the storms weak and further south in this area and the Pacific will be bringing Warm Temperatures as it will be controlling, the mountain areas will also not fare well with snow this year, the only possible storm system track would be from Alberta Clippers coming from Canada and then possibly effecting the Great Lakes, Midwest, and then possibly down into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast.

The second area is the Southeast, South Central States, the Mid Atlantic region, and possibly coastal areas of the Northeast:This area should have mainly Below average Temperatures, and Above average Rainfall/Snowfall, this area could have a very active winter as most of the storms will be coming from the northern Gulf of Mexico with an active southern jet stream, this could give lots of rain and snowstorms starting near the GOM area and then riding up the coast affecting the east coast, these could also go OTS if the prevailing factors help that, there could also be some strong Noreasters, Heavy Snow storms, and even some Blizzard like storms this winter. If you want snow in the interior Southeast and Mid Atlantic areas, this could be your winter if we can get factors right. This winter could also have some alberta clippers giving potentially more snow to the Mid Atlantic/Northeast, and possibly even some overunning events with ice potential when the southern jet stream relaxes to the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic, and Southern New England areas, we could also have an active LES season.

For the telleconnectors this winter, the main factor will be a +PNA for most of the winter which will give us the active southern jet stream, the NAO/AO/EPO will mainly fluctuate, if it was on a side, I would say it would be closer to negative,also these may be more east based at times. The greenland block should be avaliable at a lot of times, once again, we could get ice storms if the PNA becomes negative.

I am not really sold yet in what I am predicting monthly, but here it is, in the regions I mentioned above.

Area 1:December:Warm/Dry
January:Warm/Dry
February:Average to Warm/Dry
March:Near Average

Area 2:December:Average to Slightly Cold/Wet/Snowy
January:Cold/Wet/Snowy
February:Cold/Wet/Snowy
March:Near Average

If all of the above ends up true, I would go with analogs for this Winter of 1976-1977, 1977-1978, 1992-1993, 2002-2003, and 2006-2007.

So for my forecast to have a decent chance of verifying, here is what needs to happen in the next 3 months.

El Nino needs to stay Weak-Moderate, PDO needs to stay negative, SOI needs to fluctuate, Tropical weather needs to be active.

If that works out, this is what you can expect for this Winter.

Moderate El Nino, potentially Weak if factors help.
Warm/Dry Northwest, Great Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes.
Cold/Wet/Snowy Southeast, South Central, Mid Atlantic, and potentially the coastal Northeast.
Active Southern Jet Stream effecting the Southeast and East Coast with Rain/Snow.
Potential for Alberta Clippers.
Potential for Overunning Events when Southern Jet Stream relaxes.
Potentially active LES season.
+PNA for most of the Winter.
Near neutral NAO/AO/EPO for most of the Winter, potentially leaning toward Negative and East-Based.

So that is my forecast, my next full one will be out in about a month.

Comments would be appreciated.