Erika is gradually weakening overtime as this has went through the eastern carribean islands, it is barely hanging on as a Tropical Storm with winds of near 40mph. It is currently around 16.6N, and 64.7W, moving West around 9mph with the minimal central pressure of only 1008mb. Now what is interesting is that there have been major convection forming over the last night and almost wanted to move the COC further to the North/East where the healthiest convection was, otherwise since then, this has again diminished.
12z Model Runs and thoughts.
GFS:Strenghens this and runs this up the coast, big difference from past runs, though a little too strong and too far east in my opinion.
NAM:Holds it near tropical storm status and runs just east of the islands, once again a little bit too strong and east in my opinion.
GFDL and HRWF look too strong and too far east, though it is normal for them to have a high wind forecast because they are hurricane models.
The other models either send this into the western atlantic or turn it into a open wave.
In my opinion I believe some of the models are still strenghening this too much, notice that the pressure has dropped since the 11am update, infact I wouldn't be suprised if this becomes a Tropical Depression at the 5pm advisory, the shear and its location are tearing Erika apart, albeit she is still not giving up. For model tracks, same problem, they are sending this off NW right from initialation while the actual storm is heading about due west, hence this has a good chance of going south of some of the models forecasts. Some of the models are also wrong in speed as well. Unless we can get another good flareup of convection, Erika should become a Tropical Depression within possibly the next several hours.
For my forecast, I have once again shifted my forecast further to the south and west and have lowered my strengh forecast by quite a bit. I am expecting a W/WNW movement for the next 12-24 hours and that this will be a Tropical Depression by tomorrow afternoon, then this should turn more to the northwest going near the islands and then by about 120 hours this should make landfall, I am now expecting Florida as the lanfall location. By then this could not be even a Tropical Depression, just a Low or tropical wave depending on location, then it should stay inland but still not far from the coast as it gradually dissapates. This should not bring that much concern except maybe some rainfall and some breezy winds, otherwise that is about it, The National Hurricane Center also does this. You can see my predictions on track, strengh, and speed on the map above.
Now, ofcourse since we are not 100% sure on the track and strengh so there are a couple of possible scenarios.
Scenario 1:This goes as me and most forecasters expect it too and slowly weaken and head off to the W/WNW/NW likely making a southeast coast landfall.
Scenario 2:This somehow fights the shear again and starts to reform itself again and continue as a tropical storm, in this case this would likely make a NW turn and eventually N turn quicker and potentially miss land but still with a possible effect as a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm.
Scenario 3:This ends up going futher south then predictions and immediatly weakens to a Tropical Depression and possibly a open wave low and heads near or over Cuba and Jamaica and then tries to reemerge somewhere near of just south of key west, and then heads into the GOM.
Percentages for the scenarios.
1:50%
2:30%
3:20%
Note that I do agree with the NHC on track and strengh, ofcourse this may change. Still folks from Texas to Florida to Maine should monitor this as a lanfall could happen in any of these places, if it is still a technical low then.
Comments would be appreciated.
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