Tropical Storm Erika Discussion/Forecast 2

Tropical Storm Erika has formed over the last 24 hours, but with shear and approximity to the islands, this has weakened to a 40mph Tropical Storm. The current information as of 2pm are this is at around 16.2N, and 61.1W and is moving west, 265 degrees at 10mph with a pressure of 1008mb.

Here are the 12z models

GFS, keeps the storm weak and to the south near the carribean islands.

NAM, sends this to the western atlantic with a likely southeast/mid atlantic landfall.

GFDL, strenghens this to a Cat 3 and sends this into the islands southeast of florida and likely a southeast landfall.

HRWF, sends it to a strong hurricane and moves it slightly east of the islands and possibly a Southeast/Mid Atlantic landfall.

GGEM, sends this through the islands and weakens it a lot.

UKMET, keeps this south near the islands.

NOGAPS, gets this strong and sends it up the coast.

ECM, sends this near the coast.

So with the 12z guidance, this is continuing to shift west. Most models have this coming toward the east coast as some sort of Low pressure area, either a weak low or just Erika still. The reason why this is staying weak is that the shear has taken hold once again and has taken away a lot of the major convection from last nights blow up. The reason why this is further south and west as oringinally modeled is because this storm is staying weak and steering currents are alluding to this, if this storm can get stronger, we may see a more NW track, but until then, we should expect a westward track with this. The GFS/GGEM keep this storm very weak while the GFDL/HRWF and NOGAPS strenghen this storm to hurricane status. So far, I am agreeing with the NAM, UKMET, and ECM for strengh.

Now for my forecast, I am expecting that this should gradually start to gain more strengh at a slow speed in the next coming days, which should turn this more toward the NW, and then eventually possibly north, I am now expecting a landfall from this, instead of me expecting an OTS solution like I did yesterday, the best lanfall zone IMO is around the Carolinas before heading north most likely slightly inland and then hang near the coast as it starts to head NE. Now if Erika can strenghen herself more and faster than predicted, this storm will most likely take a more easterly track and most likely not hitting land, on the other hand, if she continues to struggle in strenghening and becomes a Tropical Depression or stays a weak TS, she will most likely go near the islands and possibly into the GOM. But right now, everyone from about Louisiana to Florida to Maine should watch out for a lanfall. I have posted my thoughts on track, strengh, and timing in the map above. Everyone should stay alert right now as I am expecting that this could potentially grow into a stronger tropical storm.

Comments would be appreciated.