Tropical Storm Danny Discussion 1

We have a new Tropical Storm and his name is Danny, he is currently moving in a WNW/NW direction heading toward the US.

Track

The models have been all over the place on this, we have the ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS/GFDL heading for a Coastal storm and maybe even getting inland while we have the GFS/HRWF on the east side. The average of the models have this going near cape hatteras, then moving NNE/NE going near the coast.

Strengh

Models have this as a Tropical Storm or a Category 1 Hurricane at maximum speed.

I am predicting that this will be a coastal hugger.

Here are the percentages of a situation.

Mainly off coast:1 or 2 lanfalls:60%

Mainly inland:40%

Comments would be appreciated.

Danny is Born

Hi, its Junior Met Ryan with an update on Invest 92L. The invest had jumped right to a tropical storm with winds of 45mph. the storm is moving to the WNW at 1mph and its estimated central pressure minimum is 1009mb. Here is the forecasted track from the NHC. Expect updates from Chris, Nick, and I later on this storm. I may have my brief out late tonight. Stay tuned, and here is the NHC track image:

Invest 92 Potential Impacts

More detailed discussion will be made either later today or tomorrow, remember that this could go anywhere from OTS to west of the major cities ATM.

Bill Update RYAN

Hey it is Ryan with a Bill Update. Even though Bill is north of the area, all of the east coast is getting large waves, dangerous rip currents, and beach erosion. SE Massachusetts will have impacts along with those including Tropical storm force conditions. After all they are under TSW on Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket. Atlantic Canada may see landfall. Here is the NHC 8:00 PM Intermediate Advisory: 000
WTNT33 KNHC 222331
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
800 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2009

...BILL MOVING NORTHWARD...EXPECTED TO PASS OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM CHARLESVILLE TO POINT ACONI. A HURRICANE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM
TO POINT ACONI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE
ISLANDS OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI WESTWARD TO TIDNISH...FOR THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO CHARLESVILLE...
AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY
NORTHWARD TO LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM PARSONS POND AROUND THE WESTERN...
SOUTHERN...AND EASTERN COASTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND TO HARBOUR DEEP.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST OR ABOUT 255
MILES...415 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND
ABOUT 550 MILES...880 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE BILL SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...MOVE OVER OR NEAR NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY...AND BE NEAR
NEWFOUNDLAND SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS BILL MOVES OVER
COOLER WATERS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
275 MILES...445 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND...WITH AROUND 1 INCH
EXPECTED OVER OUTER CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND SPREAD INTO THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES
OF CANADA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. SWELLS
FROM BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...37.8N 68.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 24 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

And here is my brief on Bill's future track. Here is the updated steering currents image close up Mid-Atlantic/Northeast view and a map with my expected track integrated on it.

Saturday 0z Bill Discussion

Final Bill Discussion

Hurricane Bill has weakened to a Category 2 at the moment and is currently moving Northwest, 345 degrees at 20mph. 11pm location was 31.0N and 67.5, Hurricane Bill is expected to move in a northward direction until getting closer to cape cod where it then will turn NE away from land, models are basically done trending at the time being.

Since I have explained the factors and forecasts multiple times, I will just skip to the forecast, this should move northward until around 40 north when this moves northeast, about 300-500 miles from land maybe a landfall in canada, strengh will be at a low Hurricane level.

Comments would be appreciated.

Tornado Warning

Hi, It's Ryan. Possible tornado in Maryland, heres the warnings.

First the Tornado Warning: TORNADO WARNING
MDC013-021-027-031-212345-
/O.NEW.KLWX.TO.W.0012.090821T2316Z-090821T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
716 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
NORTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...
SOUTHEASTERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 745 PM EDT

* AT 713 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION NEAR GREEN VALLEY...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREEN VALLEY...
DAMASCUS...
MOUNT AIRY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

&&

LAT...LON 3940 7710 3919 7708 3923 7735 3934 7735
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 263DEG 16KT 3930 7730

$$
PELOQUIN

Now the Severe Thunderstorm Warning: Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
MDC013-021-027-031-220000-
/O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0212.090821T2307Z-090822T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
707 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...
SOUTHEASTERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

* AT 705 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NEW MARKET TO BOYDS...AND MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW MARKET...
GAITHERSBURG...
DAMASCUS...
MONTGOMERY VILLAGE...
GREEN VALLEY...
MOUNT AIRY...
OLNEY...
SYKESVILLE...
ELDERSBURG...

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNED AREA. STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE
STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3946 7688 3943 7690 3940 7689 3937 7690
3935 7688 3934 7688 3931 7684 3914 7683
3911 7735 3943 7737 3955 7686
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 269DEG 20KT 3941 7735 3917 7729

$$
PELOQUIN

Stay safe. I may have to get off as its heading my way. I may update on the situation.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=lwx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no CHECK OUT THAT LWX RADAR LINK.

Friday 0z Bill Discussion

Hurricane Bill continues as a category 3 storm and is moving Northwest at 18mph, this should continue for about 12-36 more hours until we get more of a NNW/N turn. The models and forecasts have generally stopped trending as Bill is on track with current forecast and model guidance.

Over the last 24 hours, Bill has moved on a Northwest course, on track with the current guidance. Current models are showing a northwest track for about 24 more hours and then will turn more NNW/N and get to near 70w before starting to turn NNE/NE at 35N to 40N not to far from cape cod, mainly 100-400 miles away. The UKMET, and NOGAPS have been constently showing a further west solution with them coming near 100 miles from the cape while models like the NAM and ECM are showing this near 400 miles away from it. So we still don't have full model agreement and likely models will eventually stay, move further west or further east. Also models are showing the rather strong subropical ridge, a US neutral/negatively tilted trough, and a cold front, these all change the places of the models and their affectance. For strengh, most models are showing a category 3/4 max range with low shear in the area will most likely strenghen this once more.

Now for my forecast, I am forecasting that this Northwest movement will continue for another 12-36 hours before it gets closer to the trough and will start turning NNW/N eventually riding its neutral/negative tilt until somewhere around 35N and 70W when the steering and cold front cause this to start to move NNE/NE most likely staying in the sea about 100-300 miles from cape cod before moving toward the eastern canada area and into the northern atlantic. This will be running into the upper level low and won't be effected that much by the subtropical ridge and the trough and cold front will be the ones affecting its position, for my best forecasts and models of choice, I would choose the NHC, GFS, and ECMWF as I beleive they have the best charecteristics.

Here is what I am predicting for percentages of where this goes.

Out to sea, over 300 miles from land:10%

Middle Path, 100-300 miles from land:70%

West Path, under 100 miles from land:20%

For the strength of Bill, it is currently a 125mph Category 3 Hurricane, and I am expecting this to most likely strenghen back up to a category 4 storm with low shear. Once again, if I has to take a guess, I would have to say the strongest wind speed will be in the 140-150 mph zone. As this moves further north, the cooler water temperatures will help weaken this once we get above around 35N, this should be a Weak Hurricane, about a category 1 or 2 once this has its closest approach to land. You do not want to be in this storm with these strong winds, so get ready for it if needed.

Even though this will most likely miss land, this should cause high waves and rip currents across most of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast coastal areas, which some are already getting affected by this, if you go to the beach, make sure you know what you are doing. There may also be some rain and wind with this, especially in the Southern and Eastern New England areas.

So although I am not expecting a landfall with this, I will warn that we are not out of the woods for major effects on the eastern seabord or Bermuda, I still warn that you folks should watch this storm closely and take precautionary action if needed as this may not be done changing in forecasts and models as it is possible that the storm, subtropical ridge, US trough, and cold front will change position, strengh, and speed. So once again, I am expecting this to get only about 100-300 miles from land, so effect is likely.

Comments would be appreciated.

Thursday 0z Bill Discussion

Hurricane Bill is continuing to strenghen and move North West, the current wind speed is 135mph Category 4 and is moving Northwest, about 305 degrees at 17mph. The model and forecast guidance overall is still slightly moving further west as the northward turn is not coming to friction when it was modeled to.

The latest models are still generally shifting west, most runs now have this going west of bermuda and within effecting distance of Southern New England, some models like the GFS Ensembles, UKMET, and NOGAPS come close to the cape area and come near 100 miles away giving them rain and wind. Otherwise, the rest have this going further east but still west enough for some effect. The shift west has been caused by a speedier than progged storm, a further south storm with a stronger subtropical ridge, and a slower than expected United States trough, which should become Neutral/Negative and ride this up the coast Northwest then Northward until the front gets to it and pushes it more northeastward. Once again, it is not just forecasting time, it is nowcasting time as well with current observations.

For my forecast, I am expecting this to continue on a NW motion for another 24-48 hours possibly, then it will get closer to the Negatively tilted trough and turn Northward, by then we should be about 70w with the storm, and then once it gets closer to the incoming cold front, this will turn it Northeast racing toward near Southern New England, most likely getting only 100-200 miles away. If the trough slows down, this could be a more coastal situation and run up near the coast or an OTS situation if the trough speeds up, you can see my map above with the black line representing the most likely path. Here is what I am expecting for percentages of a solution.

Out To Sea, near or east of bermuda, little to no effect:10%
Middle Path, goes about 100-200 miles from the CAPE, decent effect especially SNE:60%
Coastal Path, landfall, major effects, especially on SNE:30%

Now for strengh, it is currently a Category 4 135mph Hurricane, with the current observations, models and forecasts, they say that this will peak at Category 4/5 strengh, if I had take a guess, I would say the top wind would be about 150mph with this. If anyone gets hit by this, you will have to prepare for the strong winds.

Now how this verifies comes down to the speed, location and strengh of Bill, the location and strengh of the ridge, and the location and speed of the Trough and Cold Front.

I still warn that folks in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, with Bermuda should be watching this one closely and take precautionary action if needed, this storm is stronger than some think and it may cause threats to structures and people, so I advise watch this storm as the track may change a lot more.

Comments would be appreciated.

Wednesday 0z Bill Discussion

I have been following the latest observations of the Hurricane and they are showing a WNW/NW movement at the moment, this hurricane is also still strenghening rather quickly.

Once again, the reason why we are continuing the WNW/NW movement instead of the more NW/NNW/N movement is because of the underestimated speed of the storm, the strengh of the subtropical ridge, and the speed and strengh of the trough in the United States. Most models have begun the Northwest/North turn to early and hence since then, most of them have trended at least some west, for example 12z Nogaps, and 12z ECM are not far from the coast, take them for granted. As of right now, this is not just forecasting time, this is nowcasting time too, observing the storm, wind speed, track, and location.

I am forecasting this WNW/NW direction to last for 24-48 more hours before we turn more northward, I am expecting this to get as far west as about 70W off Cape Hatteras and then ride North/Northeast most likely affecting SNE before turning more eastward, though there is still time for this to change, this could go closer to bermuda or closer to the US coast depending on Bill's path, and the strengh and location of the subtropical ridge and trough. You can see my map above, once again the black line equals the most likely possibility.

Here is what I am predicting for the percentages of the situation.

Early Curve, Bermuda Hit or East of Bermuda:10%
Expected Time Of Curve, Between Bermuda and US, Effects in SNE:60%
Later Curve,Coastal Scraper and SNE landfall, Mid Atlantic and Northeast Affect:30%

Overall, In my opinion, most of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast should get affected by at least higher waves, I insist on folks on the Eastern Seaboard and Bermuda should watch this closely and take action if needed.

Next update will be 0z Thursday.

Comments would be appreciated.

Hurricane Bill Discussion (Ryan)

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=14042&view=findpost&p=553728

My Accuweather.com Forum post as the images would take very long to upload.

For other info on Hurricane Bill, visit the National Hurricane Center's Website at

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Second Forecast On Bill

Over the last 36 hours, Bill has went through good strenghening, we are now at a Category 2 Hurricane.

Over the last 24 hours, I have noticed the faster than forecasted speed of bill, which is giving it more time to move Westward before the trough gets to it while a ridge stays north. This evening's steering currents are helpful of a temporary westward movement.

Now for the track, I am expecting this to move westward for potentially up to 12 hours, before it starts turning WNW, in 24-36 hours, depending on the speed of the storm and trough, should start turning NW, and then should start heading N, most likely west of Bermuda, and then should move back out to sea. The reason I am using should is that if ths storm can move fast and south enough, this MAY go through the carribean area and into the GOM potentially. The strength of this should max out at category 3/4 strength. I have revised my map which you can see above, black line equals the best chance for a track in my opinion.

Here is the percentages for the situations.

Out to sea, east of Bermuda:5%

Between Bermuda and America:50%

East Coast Landfall/Effect:30%

Gulf Of Mexico:15%

As of right now, everyone from Florida to Maine should watch this one closely in the next coming days.

Comments would be appreciated.

Tropical Outlook (Bill)

Hi, it is Ryan with an update on Hurricane Bill.

As of 5PM AST
Winds: 90mph
Gusts: 105mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 969mb
Movement: WNW 16mph

I will have other info if any land is threatened.

I think the models are surely trending west. The weakness as mentioned was overestimated. The trough is quite deep in the GL and the trough axis, which with the 18z had the neutral at 108 to the slightest bit negative to me at 126. I am a good bit confident that the trough is not negative enough and therefore deep enough to prevent a strong shunting and recurve of the storm like TWC and the NHC are predicting somewhat. I think anyone from Cape Hatteras to Nova Scotia needs to keep their eyes peeled on this storm.

My software isn't working so I don't have the images. Computer=suckish right now.

Check for more updates by Chris, Nick, and/or me at mdwx.

Thoughts On Bill

As you may know, a Tropical Storm, which may soon be a Hurricane, named Bill is churning in the Atlantic, my expected path is above.

I am expecting this to reach category 2, 3, or maybe 4 strengh if the latest models are correct. This will get pushed Northward after a WNW/NW track until the trough gets to it then pushes it northward probally staying off the coast.

Comments would be appreciated.

August 11, 2009 Severe Wx Outlook RYAN

Hi, its Ryan with my new outlook. It says Day 2 as I made it earlier but am posting it now. Enjoy!









I went again with a weird number going 20% wind because the threat will be a good one, but not as good as today. Sorry for using these as the normal level for wind is 5, 15, 30.

The rain outlook is being issued as I received 1.2'' of rain in a strong thunderstorm this evening and the rain and flash flooding threat a lot of times are involved with severe weather. PWAT values do support heavy rains for tomorrow.

August 10, 2009 Verification RYAN

Hi, it is Ryan with a verification update for August 10, 2009. I nailed the storm reports in all of my areas and my greatest threat area was justified. All of the storm reports were in my risk areas and the highest risk areas had the most reports. I think that my greatest risk (25%) should have been extended even more east toward NYC, I think I did a good job with the event.

Grade: 92/100 A.

August 10, Severe Wx Outlook

Hi,its Forecaster Ryan. Here is my August 10, 2009 Update. Enjoy :)









I don't usually do a 10% Hail but I think the lapse rates aren't good enough for a 15% like the SPC has but are better than a 5% in the greatest threat area.

Tomorrow's Severe and another possibility

Hi, it's Ryan with a SWD. Tonight later has a chance to give the Mid-Atlantic including Baltimore a weakening MCS. More studying will be done or directional patterns but it appears one of the lines is moving south southeast. Also, tomorrow will give us a chance for severe weather, as the GFS and the NAM to some extent have been bullish. I will have a discussion tomorrow morning possibly with a map on this severe weather event.

August 9 Severe Weather

Here Comes The Heat!

August 9th-11th Heat Potential.

We are going to have some of the warmest Temperatures in the season coming on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday for the Mid Atlantic, and parts of the Northeast, the culprit is a high pressure area currently situated over are area and a warm front out in the Midwest. This has caused hot weather South and East of the Warm front with high areas of convection near it. This front will be coming this way as we move into the weekend. It will be in the Northeast by Monday causing places South and East to endure hot Temperatures, that includes Temperatures in the 80s, 90s, and maybe even 100s for some. This heat will begin on Sunday, and last until about Tuesday.

Day by day forecast.

Sunday

This will be the start of the heating, the front will be nearing, and we will have the high pressure in the area. This will be giving places in the Mid Atlantic Temps of 90-100 locally while the rest of the Northeast will have Temps of 70-90 degrees, there will be some possible convection with the heat. Here is what I am predicting for Temperatures.

Predicted Highs

Boston:80
Albany:84
New York:86
Philadelphia:90
Harrisburg:89
Baltimore:93
Washington:95
Richmond:97

Monday

This will be the warmest day of the heat, the Warm front will be in place and will allow for major heat for the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, Temperatures in the Mid Atlantic will be 90-105 degrees while the rest of the region will have 75-90 degree Temperatures, there will be more instability and convection around so I wouldn't be suprised if there are Thunderstorms in the Northeast. Heat index may be in the 95-110 degree zone for many in the Mid Atlantic. Here is what I am predicting

Predicted Hights

Boston:83
Albany:86
New York:91
Philadelphia:94
Harrisburg:94
Baltimore:96
Washington:98
Richmond:100

Tuesday

This day will be a little bit cooler in Temperatures due to more convection over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, but there will still be Above Average Temperatures as the front and the high pressure will still be lingering affecting our weather. I see highs of 90-100 in the Mid Atlantic. especially the eastern part and highs from 70-90 in the Northeast back down through OH, WV, and KY. Here is my prediction for the Temps.

Predicted Highs

Boston:85
Albany:84
New York:88
Philadelphia:91
Harrisburg:91
Baltimore:93
Washington:94
Richmond:96

Overall, this should be the best potential for heat since the June 7-10 2008 Heat Wave. Folks, you should go outside and try to get to the pool as much as possible, also keep your eye to the sky as convection will be high, enjoy this heat while it lasts, with the El Nino, there could be more wild weather ahead.

Comments would be appreciated.

August 5, 2009 Severe Wx Outlook

Hi, its Ryan. Here is my Severe Wx Outlook for Wednesday, August 5, 2009. Hope it works out.

Winter 2009-2010 Northeast Maps

August 4 Minimal Severe Weather

August 2nd Severe Weather Verification

SPC Slight Risk Today

The SPC has once again put areas of MD and the Mid-Atlantic into the slight risk region. The severe weather values look to be 2% Tornado with 5% just north in SE PA. They have also put the I95 corridor of MD into a 15% hail risk along with 15% for damaging winds.






Stay tuned to our blog for later updates on possible watches and warnings.

August 2 Severe Weather Outlook

August Outlook (First post!)

While I agree with Nick's (BTownWeatherWatcher) forecast to an extent, I still decided to make my own, using new software to make the map. Unlike Nick, I foresee an average to below average start in the Northeast, followed by a warm end of the month.

The maps and discussions are shown below.

Temperatures:



Precipitation:

Predicted ENSO value through March 2010

First Winter 2009-2010 Forecast

Here is my first full forecast for the upcoming winter.

First off, the Factors.

ENSO[El Nino Southern Oscillation], the ENSO value lately has been at a Weak El Nino state in most ENSO regions, execpt the NINO 3 region which has a SST values of 1.0, though this still qualifies as a Weak El Nino since Nino 3+4 is still in the Weak El Nino and most of the regions are in a Weak El Nino state. Here is what I am predicting for the SST values through the Winter season. You can see it on the next post.

As you see, I am predicting a Moderate El Nino to form, but it could also stay as a Weak El Nino.

PDO[Pacific Decedal Oscillation], It is currently Negative and I expect it to stay Negative, which stops the El Nino from getting strong.

SOI, It is going negative which should help keep the El Nino Weak to Moderate.

Now, the forecast's.

Temperatures

I expect this to follow a normal El Nino pattern and have mainly Above average Temperatures in the North, and Below average Temperatures in the Southeast, the Northeast could be up for grabs in Temperatures, although I am currently expecting Near average Temperatures.

Rainfall, this should mainly be Below Average in the Northern US, and Above average in the South, Southeast, and potentially the Mid Atlantic, once again the Northeast is up for grabs.

Snowfall, this will be a trickier forecast, it should be Below average in the North, Above average in the east and potentially the Mid Atlantic, the Northeast is up for grabs but it could potentially be Above Average near the coastal areas and 1-95 if, big IF, the storm track falls in their favor.

Storm Tracks, alberta clippers going through the Midwest and the Northeast/Mid Atlantic, bringing light snowfall possible, Gulf of Mexico storms and Miller A storms, we could have a lot of these this Winter due to the active southern jet stream which will carry a lot of moisture, these will bring lots of rain the Southeast and they may ride up the coast if we have a +PNA, which we may have for this Winter, this will be the Mid Atlantic and Northeast's best potential for snowfall this Winter.

So here is my general forecast so far.

ENSO, Moderate El Nino, could be Weak depending on how the PDO, and SOI help.
Temperatures, Above North, Below Southeast
Rainfall, Below North, Above South and Southeast, Mid Atlantic?
Snowfall, Below North, Above Southeast, Mid Atlantic and Northeast?
Storm Tracks, Alberta Clippers and Gulf of Mexico Lows.

Comments would be appreciated.

Final August Forecast

Pattern

August 1-8, Near average Temperatures and Rainfall

August 9-14, Above average Temperatures and Below average Rainfall

August 15-20, Average Temperatures and Above average Rainfall

August 21-27, Below Average Temperatures and Average Rainfall

August 28-31, Average temperatures and Rainfall

Comments would be appreciated