Here is my first full forecast for the upcoming winter.
First off, the Factors.
ENSO[El Nino Southern Oscillation], the ENSO value lately has been at a Weak El Nino state in most ENSO regions, execpt the NINO 3 region which has a SST values of 1.0, though this still qualifies as a Weak El Nino since Nino 3+4 is still in the Weak El Nino and most of the regions are in a Weak El Nino state. Here is what I am predicting for the SST values through the Winter season. You can see it on the next post.
As you see, I am predicting a Moderate El Nino to form, but it could also stay as a Weak El Nino.
PDO[Pacific Decedal Oscillation], It is currently Negative and I expect it to stay Negative, which stops the El Nino from getting strong.
SOI, It is going negative which should help keep the El Nino Weak to Moderate.
Now, the forecast's.
Temperatures
I expect this to follow a normal El Nino pattern and have mainly Above average Temperatures in the North, and Below average Temperatures in the Southeast, the Northeast could be up for grabs in Temperatures, although I am currently expecting Near average Temperatures.
Rainfall, this should mainly be Below Average in the Northern US, and Above average in the South, Southeast, and potentially the Mid Atlantic, once again the Northeast is up for grabs.
Snowfall, this will be a trickier forecast, it should be Below average in the North, Above average in the east and potentially the Mid Atlantic, the Northeast is up for grabs but it could potentially be Above Average near the coastal areas and 1-95 if, big IF, the storm track falls in their favor.
Storm Tracks, alberta clippers going through the Midwest and the Northeast/Mid Atlantic, bringing light snowfall possible, Gulf of Mexico storms and Miller A storms, we could have a lot of these this Winter due to the active southern jet stream which will carry a lot of moisture, these will bring lots of rain the Southeast and they may ride up the coast if we have a +PNA, which we may have for this Winter, this will be the Mid Atlantic and Northeast's best potential for snowfall this Winter.
So here is my general forecast so far.
ENSO, Moderate El Nino, could be Weak depending on how the PDO, and SOI help.
Temperatures, Above North, Below Southeast
Rainfall, Below North, Above South and Southeast, Mid Atlantic?
Snowfall, Below North, Above Southeast, Mid Atlantic and Northeast?
Storm Tracks, Alberta Clippers and Gulf of Mexico Lows.
Comments would be appreciated.
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very nice site chris,
ReplyDeleteluke( balt big daddy)
Disagree. I expect this winter snowfall to be slightly-above average and temps to be average possible leaning slightly below. for philadelphia because i expect a moderate el nino and the PDO to be cold.
ReplyDeleteI'm a meteorologist, but I'm not a long-range forecaster--so I can't comment on the specifics of the forecast.
ReplyDeleteI will say this--the first long-range forecast for the winter that I've seen (from AccuWeather) forecasts colder and snowier than average for the Northeast/Mid-Altantic regions, based on previous winters with a weakening el nino:
http://cloudyandcool.com/2009/07/16/long-range-winter-forecast-2009-2010/
It will be interseting to see how it works out--it does largely depend on the strength of the El Nino, I suppose.
Mid-August Update
ReplyDeleteI see no real changes that I have to make for this, most nino regions are still in a Weak El Nino state. We are currently in a multidecadal -PDO year which will help keep the SST'S from rapidly warming, and the SOI is fluctuating between Negative and Positive. With that, I am still going for a Moderate El Nino, which could be weak if we have a mainly -PDO and +SOI and a few more factors, though I am not ruling out a Strong El Nino, but it is still unlikely. I am predicting a max SST/ONI value for this event between 1.2 and 1.5. I am predicting the best chance for colder than average Temps and above average snowfall to be in January and February with the factors.
So overall, no real changes, I will have my updated forecast around Labor Day.
Doesn't a strong el nino mean warmer than average? --in which case apparently it's going to be colder than average, if the forecast of a weakening el nino holds true.
ReplyDeleteWHAT REGION IS NJ MID ATLANTIC OR NORTHEAST AND WHAT DO YOU EXPECT FOR NJ
ReplyDeletecome on will it be cold, lots of snow and ice, make a guess and say plain don't make people guess
ReplyDeleteNJ is in the Mid-Atlantic region so look to see what is said about that. Also, for future reference, typing in all caps on a post is considered shouting and slightly rude...not to mention hard to read at times.
ReplyDelete