Wednesday 0z Bill Discussion

I have been following the latest observations of the Hurricane and they are showing a WNW/NW movement at the moment, this hurricane is also still strenghening rather quickly.

Once again, the reason why we are continuing the WNW/NW movement instead of the more NW/NNW/N movement is because of the underestimated speed of the storm, the strengh of the subtropical ridge, and the speed and strengh of the trough in the United States. Most models have begun the Northwest/North turn to early and hence since then, most of them have trended at least some west, for example 12z Nogaps, and 12z ECM are not far from the coast, take them for granted. As of right now, this is not just forecasting time, this is nowcasting time too, observing the storm, wind speed, track, and location.

I am forecasting this WNW/NW direction to last for 24-48 more hours before we turn more northward, I am expecting this to get as far west as about 70W off Cape Hatteras and then ride North/Northeast most likely affecting SNE before turning more eastward, though there is still time for this to change, this could go closer to bermuda or closer to the US coast depending on Bill's path, and the strengh and location of the subtropical ridge and trough. You can see my map above, once again the black line equals the most likely possibility.

Here is what I am predicting for the percentages of the situation.

Early Curve, Bermuda Hit or East of Bermuda:10%
Expected Time Of Curve, Between Bermuda and US, Effects in SNE:60%
Later Curve,Coastal Scraper and SNE landfall, Mid Atlantic and Northeast Affect:30%

Overall, In my opinion, most of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast should get affected by at least higher waves, I insist on folks on the Eastern Seaboard and Bermuda should watch this closely and take action if needed.

Next update will be 0z Thursday.

Comments would be appreciated.