Thursday 0z Bill Discussion

Hurricane Bill is continuing to strenghen and move North West, the current wind speed is 135mph Category 4 and is moving Northwest, about 305 degrees at 17mph. The model and forecast guidance overall is still slightly moving further west as the northward turn is not coming to friction when it was modeled to.

The latest models are still generally shifting west, most runs now have this going west of bermuda and within effecting distance of Southern New England, some models like the GFS Ensembles, UKMET, and NOGAPS come close to the cape area and come near 100 miles away giving them rain and wind. Otherwise, the rest have this going further east but still west enough for some effect. The shift west has been caused by a speedier than progged storm, a further south storm with a stronger subtropical ridge, and a slower than expected United States trough, which should become Neutral/Negative and ride this up the coast Northwest then Northward until the front gets to it and pushes it more northeastward. Once again, it is not just forecasting time, it is nowcasting time as well with current observations.

For my forecast, I am expecting this to continue on a NW motion for another 24-48 hours possibly, then it will get closer to the Negatively tilted trough and turn Northward, by then we should be about 70w with the storm, and then once it gets closer to the incoming cold front, this will turn it Northeast racing toward near Southern New England, most likely getting only 100-200 miles away. If the trough slows down, this could be a more coastal situation and run up near the coast or an OTS situation if the trough speeds up, you can see my map above with the black line representing the most likely path. Here is what I am expecting for percentages of a solution.

Out To Sea, near or east of bermuda, little to no effect:10%
Middle Path, goes about 100-200 miles from the CAPE, decent effect especially SNE:60%
Coastal Path, landfall, major effects, especially on SNE:30%

Now for strengh, it is currently a Category 4 135mph Hurricane, with the current observations, models and forecasts, they say that this will peak at Category 4/5 strengh, if I had take a guess, I would say the top wind would be about 150mph with this. If anyone gets hit by this, you will have to prepare for the strong winds.

Now how this verifies comes down to the speed, location and strengh of Bill, the location and strengh of the ridge, and the location and speed of the Trough and Cold Front.

I still warn that folks in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, with Bermuda should be watching this one closely and take precautionary action if needed, this storm is stronger than some think and it may cause threats to structures and people, so I advise watch this storm as the track may change a lot more.

Comments would be appreciated.