Friday 0z Bill Discussion

Hurricane Bill continues as a category 3 storm and is moving Northwest at 18mph, this should continue for about 12-36 more hours until we get more of a NNW/N turn. The models and forecasts have generally stopped trending as Bill is on track with current forecast and model guidance.

Over the last 24 hours, Bill has moved on a Northwest course, on track with the current guidance. Current models are showing a northwest track for about 24 more hours and then will turn more NNW/N and get to near 70w before starting to turn NNE/NE at 35N to 40N not to far from cape cod, mainly 100-400 miles away. The UKMET, and NOGAPS have been constently showing a further west solution with them coming near 100 miles from the cape while models like the NAM and ECM are showing this near 400 miles away from it. So we still don't have full model agreement and likely models will eventually stay, move further west or further east. Also models are showing the rather strong subropical ridge, a US neutral/negatively tilted trough, and a cold front, these all change the places of the models and their affectance. For strengh, most models are showing a category 3/4 max range with low shear in the area will most likely strenghen this once more.

Now for my forecast, I am forecasting that this Northwest movement will continue for another 12-36 hours before it gets closer to the trough and will start turning NNW/N eventually riding its neutral/negative tilt until somewhere around 35N and 70W when the steering and cold front cause this to start to move NNE/NE most likely staying in the sea about 100-300 miles from cape cod before moving toward the eastern canada area and into the northern atlantic. This will be running into the upper level low and won't be effected that much by the subtropical ridge and the trough and cold front will be the ones affecting its position, for my best forecasts and models of choice, I would choose the NHC, GFS, and ECMWF as I beleive they have the best charecteristics.

Here is what I am predicting for percentages of where this goes.

Out to sea, over 300 miles from land:10%

Middle Path, 100-300 miles from land:70%

West Path, under 100 miles from land:20%

For the strength of Bill, it is currently a 125mph Category 3 Hurricane, and I am expecting this to most likely strenghen back up to a category 4 storm with low shear. Once again, if I has to take a guess, I would have to say the strongest wind speed will be in the 140-150 mph zone. As this moves further north, the cooler water temperatures will help weaken this once we get above around 35N, this should be a Weak Hurricane, about a category 1 or 2 once this has its closest approach to land. You do not want to be in this storm with these strong winds, so get ready for it if needed.

Even though this will most likely miss land, this should cause high waves and rip currents across most of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast coastal areas, which some are already getting affected by this, if you go to the beach, make sure you know what you are doing. There may also be some rain and wind with this, especially in the Southern and Eastern New England areas.

So although I am not expecting a landfall with this, I will warn that we are not out of the woods for major effects on the eastern seabord or Bermuda, I still warn that you folks should watch this storm closely and take precautionary action if needed as this may not be done changing in forecasts and models as it is possible that the storm, subtropical ridge, US trough, and cold front will change position, strengh, and speed. So once again, I am expecting this to get only about 100-300 miles from land, so effect is likely.

Comments would be appreciated.