7/28/09 Severe Weather Discussion/Forecast

Tuesday 7/28/09 Day 1 Outlook

There is another potential for Severe Weather tomorrow, this will be located mainly in the Mid Atlantic, especially the Eastern part if the atmospheric conditions corroperate. The 00z GFS has CAPE values of 1000-2500, LI values of -2 to -6, and Laspe Rates of 5.5 to 6.5 in that area. The 00z NAM has CAPE values of 500-2000, LI values of -1 to -7, and Laspe Rates of 5.0 to 7.0 in that area. The reason of this severe weather potential is a cold front which will spark up Thunderstorms, some severe in the Mid Atlantic. Tomorrow, we will have Temperatures mainly in the 80s with potential 90s in the Mid Atlantic. Most places should wake up to partly cloudy to sunny skies, which will give off lots of instability and daytime heating making it favorable for severe weather. I also see enough humidity ahead of the front to have potential scattered areas of thunderstorms, and some could contain heavy rainfall. I am 80% confident in this forecast because of most conditions and parameters won't be hard to predict, it just depends on how quick the front moves and how much cloud cover there is. In the highlighted region, I see CAPE values of mainly 1000-2000, LI values of -2 to -6, and Laspe Rates of 5.5 to 6.5. The main threat's with these storms will be Strong Wind, Small Hail, and Heavy Rainfall. I don't see as much severe weather reports than the last few days, but we still may get several if the weather corroperates. If I see any major changes, I will have an updated map as soon as I possibly can during the day Tomorrow. So that is my forecast, Low Risk of severe weather in the Mid Atlantic.

Comments would be appreciated.