Sunday 7/26/09 Day 1 outlook.
The latest 00z GFS has CAPE values of 1000-2500 through a good portion of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast and has LI values of -4 to -8. The 00z NAM has CAPE values of mainly 500-2000 across the Mid Atlantic/Northeast and has LI values of -2 to -6. Overall Tomorrow, I am expecting a good chance of severe thunderstorms across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. With potential sunshine in the beginning of the day, it will cause instability and will fire up storms with enough CAPE and LI, also there will be Temperatures in the 70s/80s in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast and ample humidity around. Overall, the best area for severe weather in my opinion will be in Northeast MD, Eastern PA, Southeast NY, Western MA, Most of CT, NJ, and Northern DE. In those areas, I see potential CAPE values of 1500-2500 and LI values of -4 to -8 while in the other highlighted areas I see CAPE values of 500-1500 and LI values of -2 to -4, so with all of that in mind, here is my final map which is avaliable at the accuweather forums.
The latest 00z GFS has CAPE values of 1000-2500 through a good portion of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast and has LI values of -4 to -8. The 00z NAM has CAPE values of mainly 500-2000 across the Mid Atlantic/Northeast and has LI values of -2 to -6. Overall Tomorrow, I am expecting a good chance of severe thunderstorms across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. With potential sunshine in the beginning of the day, it will cause instability and will fire up storms with enough CAPE and LI, also there will be Temperatures in the 70s/80s in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast and ample humidity around. Overall, the best area for severe weather in my opinion will be in Northeast MD, Eastern PA, Southeast NY, Western MA, Most of CT, NJ, and Northern DE. In those areas, I see potential CAPE values of 1500-2500 and LI values of -4 to -8 while in the other highlighted areas I see CAPE values of 500-1500 and LI values of -2 to -4, so with all of that in mind, here is my final map which is avaliable at the accuweather forums.
Verification:A/B
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