SPC Update Out

The SPC Update for today is out and is conservative for the MD area as it has 2% tornado, 15% wind and 15% hail. Thunderstorms to begin with will be there with the thunder probabilities over 90% in our region. The main threat tomorrow will be damaging winds with linear storms and line segments are possible causing the straight line wind damage. The severe weather parameters for tomorrows event are there with the main item, the CAPE around 1500 for the area, the LI values between -3 and -4 for the area, the SWEAT values are around 400, Another threat in my opinion is Flash Flooding and wet microburts as the PWAT values are around 2 for the MD/VA area. The BRN, an index for shear is also around 15-17 for our area, almost perfect for the region. The big question about tomorrows severe weather will be cloud cover, which was a problem in Wednesday's event limiting severe weather. Hail is marginally possible with the mid-level favorability not really where it is needed in terms of web-bulb temps. Finally, Isolated Tornadoes are possible due to the bulk shear being between 30-50kts both in the low and mid levels.

So, for a wrap, the main factor, with all the parameter's in place in sunlight, and the unstable, moist atmosphere is ready to fire with its warm temps, high relative humidities, and high dew points.

Here are my maps: