Sunday, December 6, 2009

Snowstorm Amounts, Ice Storm Possible (RYAN)

The snowstorm that occurred yesterday had surprises for many in the DC/BAL area. Some amounts to note were:
Perry Hall, MD: 1''
Dundalk, MD: 2''
Woodlawn, MD: 5.5''
Damascus, MD: 6''

This storm was covered on the accuweather.com forums. From now on, they will be discussed there, but this blog is once again active.

There is the potential for an ICE STORM this Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning.

EARLY HINTS:

The national weather services Hazardous weather outlook for Central MD

A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.
WHILE IT IS TOO SOON TO CATEGORICALLY DETERMINE THE EXACT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR IT TO BE FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET.

Analysis: This shows that the NWS is hinted in on the chance for a Winter Storm, with Ice Storm being the one to focus on.

Our Synopsis from MDWX(How it could play out): The low coming across the Great Plains of the central US will gain strentgh and this could set up a claassic CAD(cold air damming) situation east of the Blue Ridge Mountains to I-95. It is too early to hone in on the exact timing of the precip, or how long it will last, but one thing is for sure; Wednesday afternoon the precip will change to all rain with temps in the 40's.

NWS Forecast for this period(Baltimore MD):
Tuesday Night: Freezing rain and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Wednesday: Freezing rain and sleet likely before 9am, then rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Analysis: The bolded areas are my focus, and especially how there could be 1/2-3/4'' of precip in the freezing rain/sleet categories. What this means: A large Ice Storm with big effects is definitely a possibiliy and precip chances are already 70%, so this is something that HAS to be watched closely.

Next Update: This evening.

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